Electric Cars

Friday Math Fun with the Tesla Model 3.

Model 3I’m not going to bash the Tesla Model 3. I like the idea of the electric car, and I like the innovation that Tesla is doing with their vehicles. I am going to do a little math though. Why? Because it’s Friday and everyone loves math on Friday’s.

So Telsa has 325,000 pre-orders for the Model 3. That is 325,000,000 dollars given them to hopeful buyers that are willing to wait for a new car, and wait they will and here is why. “Time.”

There is only so many hours in the day, and you can only assemble a car so fast. With a launch date set for “Late 2017” the first cars won’t start rolling off the assembly line for 19 months from now at the soonest. Now, let’s look at that 325,000 order number and divide it out over time.

Say Tesla sets a moderate time frame of 48 months to build all 325,000 Model 3’s.

325,000 divided by 48 months equals 6,770 a month. 6770 divided by 30 equals 225 a day. Which is about 9.5 cars an hour.

The Ford F150 is one of the most popular vehicles in America. In comparison Ford’s Dearborn Truck Plant produces about 1,250 of these trucks every day it operates. or roughly 62.5 trucks assembled by 1000 people over a 20 hour shift. (I see Tesla hiring a boat load of assembly line workers. Don’t forget Tesla will have to train them all and that adds even more time to the problem)

Now let’s revise our numbers a bit. Let’s say half of the 325 thousand drop out of the race to get a Model 3. How many would Tesla still have to crank out and at what rate? So, 162,500 Model 3’s over 48 months.

162, 500 divided by 48 months equals 3,385 a month. 3,385 or about 112 cars a day, if Tesla works 30 days a month, 24 hours a day. so 4.75 cars an hour every month for 48 months non stop to reach total demand. And that doesn’t include production of the Model S and Model X. That folks is a tall order, and remember they do not have a dedicated plant to built the Model 3 in yet.

I’m not saying Tesla can’t do it, or won’t do it. I’m just thinking it’s going to be a while after late 2017 before some people see their Model 3 and quite a bit can change in the next 3 to 4 years. I wonder if we’ll have flying electric cars by 2020?

VW Electric Café. Augmented Reality, That Seems a Bit Surreal.

There are a couple of things that struck me when I saw this video on YouTube. First it’s a great use of Augmented Reality to advertise the thrifty nature of the VW Electric Golf. Second, it is how absolutely Western the setting, and people look. The Chinese people, not the token white guy in the video.

I know there is a huge fascination with western culture in China, and especially all things American, but Ogilvy Beijing and Ogilvy Hong Kong took it to a new level by using only English language titles in the Augmented reality application, and by making the only place the application functions a café that feels like a cross between an Apple store and a Starbucks.

The Augmented Reality app “Electric Café” from Volkswagen, was setup to educate and inspire people in China about how energy efficient the VW Electric Golf actually is in comparison to other electric appliances they use every day.

The café is peppered with AR markers on each of the appliances that are in the Café space.When an iOS device is pointed at any of the markers the AR experience comes to life and shows a comparison between the appliance, and how far you could drive the Golf based on the amount of juice that appliance uses in a day. It’s a pretty clever idea, and one that I wish I knew more about that strategy behind. I’d be really curious to see what the thinking was behind the very western execution of this.

By the way, is it just me, or do all of the people in this video look like they were just plucked out of some mid-western shopping mall in America.

Zero. The Nissan Leaf.

With gas prices hovering around 4 bucks a gallon in the USA, and closer to 7 in Europe, Nissan could probably say nothing about the new all electric Leaf and it would sell.

Playing off of the number zero, Nissan’s latest TV spot plays into two factors the Leaf represents. Zero gasoline consumption, and zero emissions. (the latter is debatable when you consider how electricity is made) The spot is well shot and edited completely playing up  the Leaf’s place amongst today’s cars.

I’d love to know how many people they convince to trade in their gas guzzling planet killer SUV’s for one of these. Somehow I’m thinking that number will be pretty small here in the USA.